A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
